World Cup 2026 Predictions & Favourites: Who Will Win?

France are outright favourites at 9/5 to win World Cup 2026 — Argentina second at 4/1, Spain third at 13/2. The group stage is complete, the Round of 32 is wrapping up, and the Round of 16 begins 4 July. Two pre-tournament heavyweights — Germany and the Netherlands — have already been eliminated in shock Round of 32 exits on penalties.

Current World Cup 2026 Winner Odds — Top 8

France have shortened from joint-favourite at 9/2 pre-tournament to outright favourite at 9/5 after three wins and Mbappé’s six goals. Germany and the Netherlands have dropped out of the market entirely after their Round of 32 exits.

France — Clear Favourites After Dominant Form

France are the strongest side left in the tournament — 9 points from 3 group games, 3-0 vs Sweden in the Round of 32, Mbappé on 6 goals and leading the Golden Boot race on assists tiebreaker. Didier Deschamps has stated this will be his last tournament in charge, which gives the squad added motivation. Next up: Paraguay in the Round of 16 on 4 July.

• Group stage: 9pts, 11 goals scored, 3 goals conceded
• R32: 3-0 vs Sweden — dominant, no contest
• Mbappé: 6 goals, 2 assists — Golden Boot leader on tiebreaker
• Dembélé: 4 goals — second attacking threat from the right
• Next: Paraguay, 4 July — clear favourites to advance

Argentina — Defending Champions in Golden Boot Form

Argentina are the only team defending a World Cup title since France in 1998, and Messi is 6 goals in with the all-time tournament record already his. They won their group with a perfect 9 points. Their R32 match is today (3 July) vs Cape Verde — strong favourites to advance.

• Group stage: 9pts, 10 goals, 3 conceded — perfect record
• Messi: 6 goals including hat-trick vs Algeria — all-time WC goals leader (19)
• Historical curse: No team has successfully defended the World Cup since Brazil in 1962
• R32: vs Cape Verde today — heavy favourites

Spain — Joint-Favourite to Outright Contender

Spain have looked impressive — 3-0 vs Austria in the Round of 32 and 7 points from the group stage with the youngest squad at the tournament. Their odds have shifted from joint-favourite at 9/2 pre-tournament to 13/2 as France’s dominance has become clearer.

• Group stage: 7pts, 8 goals scored
• R32: 3-0 vs Austria — controlled, professional
• Oyarzabal: 4 goals — dark horse Golden Boot contender
• Squad age: youngest at tournament — potential to peak in later rounds

England — Can Tuchel Break 60-Year Wait?

England are through but have not convinced — a 2-1 win over DR Congo in the Round of 32 saw their odds drift slightly from 7/1 to 9/1. The real test arrives on 6 July at the Estadio Azteca against Mexico. England are slight favourites (-140 on US lines) but the Azteca is a notoriously hostile venue.

• Group stage: 7pts, won Group L — solid if unspectacular
• R32: 2-1 vs DR Congo — came from behind, not convincing
• Kane: broke England’s all-time WC scoring record, surpassing Gary Lineker
• Next: Mexico, 6 July, Estadio Azteca — England slight favourites but hostile atmosphere
• Odds drift: 7/1 → 9/1 after unconvincing R32 performance

Brazil and Portugal — Underrated Contenders

Brazil and Portugal are both at 10/1 and 13/1 respectively — both through to the Round of 16 and capable of going much further.

• Brazil 10/1: 2-1 vs Japan in R32 — Vinícius Júnior on 4 goals, physical and direct. Face Canada in R16.
• Portugal 13/1: 2-1 vs Croatia in R32 — Cristiano Ronaldo finally scored his first WC knockout goal. Motivated squad.

Germany and Netherlands — Eliminated (Shock Exits)

Two of the pre-tournament favourites are out — Germany lost to Paraguay on penalties and the Netherlands lost to Morocco on penalties in the Round of 32. Both results rank among the biggest World Cup upsets since 2022.

• Germany ❌: Drew 1-1 with Paraguay, lost 4-3 on penalties. Eliminated as pre-tournament 13/1 favourites.
• Netherlands ❌: Drew 1-1 with Morocco, lost 3-2 on penalties. Major shock — Morocco the hero of 2026 so far.

Dark Horses — Morocco and Norway

Morocco at 25/1 and Norway at 40/1 are the tournament’s standout overperformers — both still in the Round of 16.

• Morocco 25/1: Beat Netherlands on penalties in R32 — Atlas Lions have pace, organisation and now genuine belief.
• Norway 40/1: Haaland on 5 goals — if he stays in form, Norway could upset anyone. Through to R16 after beating Ivory Coast 2-1.
• Scotland: Eliminated in group stage — 3pts, 1 goal, no path to qualification. Tough tournament.

Round of 16 Key Fixtures

The Round of 16 runs 4–8 July — England, France and Argentina are all in action in the first two days.

Data Model Prediction — What the Numbers Say

Post-R32 data models give France a 28% implied probability of winning the tournament — nearly double the pre-tournament estimate. The penalty shootout exits for Germany and Netherlands have reshaped the draw significantly in France and Argentina’s favour.

• France 28.4% — goals scored, goals conceded, xG, draw quality all point to France
• Argentina 18.7% — Messi effect + best group stage record (+7 GD)
• Spain 14.2% — young squad but consistent
• England 8.1% — odds drifted; Azteca test this week is defining
• Brazil 7.9% — Vinícius in form but Brazil look less cohesive than 2022
• Morocco 4.1% — model underrated them; pens vs Netherlands changes the calculus

FAQ

World Cup Final: 19 July 2026, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey.