“We are very happy with GTA VI pre-orders. The title is breaking records for Xbox, we expect even more records will be broken throughout the fall, and our internal analysis shows our share of pre-orders to be matching our share of the console market.” — Matthew Ball, Xbox Chief Strategy Officer
That statement came directly in response to reporting that PlayStation is dominating pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto 6, which launches on 19 November. The response from Xbox CSO Matthew Ball was calm, made on Twitter in response to The Verge’s Tom Warren. The question the numbers raise is slightly less straightforward than Ball’s framing suggests.
What the Sensor Tower Data Actually Shows
Analyst firm Sensor Tower, tracking digital pre-orders, put the PS5 vs Xbox split at approximately 77% PlayStation to 23% Xbox as of mid-August. In raw numbers, that translates to roughly 4.35 million copies on PS5 — generating an estimated $426 million in pre-order revenue — against about 1.3 million on Xbox, worth approximately $128 million.
On the face of it, PS5 is ahead by more than three-to-one. But Matthew Ball’s counter is not that PS5 is behind — it is that Xbox’s 23% is proportional to where Xbox stands in the console market. If that claim is accurate, it means Xbox is not losing ground relative to its footprint; it is simply operating from a smaller installed base.
The Installed Base Question
Whether Ball’s comparison holds depends on what Xbox’s actual console market share is — something Microsoft does not publish. IDG estimated in March 2026 that there were 129 million ninth-generation consoles on the market: 93.7 million PS5 units, 19.85 million Switch 2 units, and a remainder of roughly 15.45 million Xbox Series X and S consoles.
Grand Theft Auto 6 is not coming to Switch 2, so the relevant comparison is Xbox against PlayStation on the platforms actually getting the game. On that basis, Xbox accounts for approximately 14% of the PS5 plus Xbox installed base — not 23%. The gap between Xbox’s claimed “matching” share and the available installed base data is where the debate lives.
Sony’s Marketing Advantage
None of this discussion accounts for how lopsided the marketing setup is. Sony has the primary marketing deal with Rockstar for Grand Theft Auto 6 — every major trailer has run under PlayStation branding, and the PS5 Pro has been heavily positioned as the definitive way to play the game. That kind of exclusive promotional presence tends to funnel casual buyers toward the platform being promoted, regardless of what they already own.
Xbox, by contrast, has been essentially absent from GTA 6 marketing materials. That Xbox is holding its own in that environment is the version of Ball’s argument that carries the most weight — though “holding its own” is a lower bar than “matching PS5.”
The Ultimate Edition Signal
One data point that complicates the simple narrative of PS5 dominance: Sensor Tower found that 89% of GTA 6 buyers on both platforms opted for the Ultimate Edition of the game, with the rate nearly identical — 90% on Xbox, 88.5% on PlayStation. That equivalence, at least, suggests Xbox players who do pre-order are as committed to the premium version as PS5 buyers are.
Ball’s broader point about record-breaking pre-orders on Xbox is also plausible on its own terms. GTA 5 shipped in 2013 when Xbox was in a stronger market position; the Xbox player base has contracted since. Setting a new record on a smaller installed base is mathematically compatible with the 23% Sensor Tower figure.
What November 19 Will Settle
Both sides of this argument are currently working from estimates and private data. Sensor Tower’s figures track a subset of digital pre-orders, not full sales; Ball’s “internal analysis” is not public. The actual platform split will only become clear once GTA 6 launches and first-week sales figures start filtering through publishers and analysts.
Pre-orders, historically, tilt toward the platform with the louder marketing presence. The 89% of GTA 6 buyers opting for the Ultimate Edition — split nearly equally between Xbox (90%) and PlayStation (88.5%) according to Sensor Tower — is at least one data point that favours Ball’s argument about platform loyalty rather than console preference. Whether the 77/23 unit split translates into something similar on launch day — or something closer to what Xbox is claiming — is a genuinely open question. For Xbox, whose market position has been a running topic for the past several years, how Grand Theft Auto 6 lands on its platform matters beyond any one game’s numbers.
